Tue, Oct 21 2025 • 18:30 • Cwrt-yr-Ala
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.84 (league 1.71) 0.50 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.1% 38.4% 20.4%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.2%
1 - 0
22.0%
0 - 1
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
Newport City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caerau (Ely) 0 26.2% 13.1% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 22.0% 11.0% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.2% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCaerau (Ely)Newport City
Played55
Form67%53%
Attack79%50%
Defense71%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Caerau (Ely) Newport City
HATHAT
Played5510459
Wins60%80%70%50%40%44%
Draws40%0%20%50%40%44%
Loses0%20%10%0%20%11%

Form: Caerau (Ely): WDWWWLDWWW • Newport City: WWDDDWWLD

League goals

Metric Caerau (Ely) Newport City
HATHAT
GF total614205914
GF avg1.22.82.01.31.81.6
GA total246369
GA avg0.40.80.60.81.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCaerau (Ely)Newport City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%40%89%78%
1.560%10%44%11%
2.520%10%22%11%
3.520%0%0%0%
4.510%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCaerau (Ely)Newport City
HATHAT
Clean sheets336112
Failed to score101011

Penalties

MetricCaerau (Ely)Newport City
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricCaerau (Ely)Newport City
Wins32
Draws13
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-52-11-3
Biggest losses—3-2—1-0
Goals For2523
Goals Against1313

Model comparison

MetricCaerau (Ely)Newport City
Form56%44%
Att61%39%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution63%37%
H2h0%100%
Goals29%71%
Total53.0%47.0%

Advice: Double chance : Caerau (Ely) or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.46 @ Dafabet
Draw4.00 @ Bet365
Away2.63 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.20 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.58 @ Superbet
No2.25 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Caerau (Ely) = 0.84 (league 1.71), Newport City = 0.50 (league 1.44)

Newport City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caerau (Ely) 0 26.2% 13.1% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 22.0% 11.0% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.2% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.1% · Draw 38.4% · Away win 20.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1