Fri, Jan 16 2026 • 19:30 • Cwrt-yr-Ala
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.40 (league 1.71) 1.63 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
8.6% 23.2% 67.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
21.4%
0 - 2
17.5%
0 - 0
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
Trefelin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caerau (Ely) 0 13.1% 21.4% 17.5% 9.5% 3.9% 1.3%
1 5.2% 8.5% 7.0% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5%
2 1.0% 1.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCaerau (Ely)Trefelin
Played55
Form53%100%
Attack26%63%
Defense68%95%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 112 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.21 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Caerau (Ely) Trefelin
HATHAT
Played99189716
Wins67%44%56%67%86%75%
Draws22%22%22%22%14%19%
Loses11%33%22%11%0%6%

Form: Caerau (Ely): WDWWWLDWWWWLLDWLWD • Trefelin: WLWWDDWWDWWWWWWW

League goals

Metric Caerau (Ely) Trefelin
HATHAT
GF total151833191736
GF avg1.72.01.82.12.42.3
GA total91221639
GA avg1.01.31.20.70.40.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCaerau (Ely)Trefelin
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%61%88%38%
1.556%28%81%13%
2.517%28%38%6%
3.517%0%13%0%
4.56%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCaerau (Ely)Trefelin
HATHAT
Clean sheets4376410
Failed to score112202

Penalties

MetricCaerau (Ely)Trefelin
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total62

Streaks

MetricCaerau (Ely)Trefelin
Wins42
Draws12
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-54-00-5
Biggest losses2-33-00-2—
Goals For4545
Goals Against3331

Model comparison

MetricCaerau (Ely)Trefelin
Form35%65%
Att29%71%
Def14%86%
Poisson Distribution18%82%
H2h40%60%
Goals44%56%
Total30.0%70.0%

Advice: Winner : Trefelin

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.26 @ Dafabet
Draw3.82 @ Pinnacle
Away2.75 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.20 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.61 @ Superbet
No2.40 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Caerau (Ely) = 0.40 (league 1.71), Trefelin = 1.63 (league 1.47)

Trefelin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caerau (Ely) 0 13.1% 21.4% 17.5% 9.5% 3.9% 1.3%
1 5.2% 8.5% 7.0% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5%
2 1.0% 1.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 8.6% · Draw 23.2% · Away win 67.6%

vtt 8 , vtd1