Fri, Nov 28 2025 • 19:30 • Richmond Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.63 (league 1.71) 0.75 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
27.1% 38.6% 34.3%
best score tips
0 - 0
25.2%
0 - 1
18.9%
1 - 0
15.9%
Score & goals probability table
Caerau (Ely)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carmarthen Town 0 25.2% 18.9% 7.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
1 15.9% 11.9% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCarmarthen TownCaerau (Ely)
Played55
Form53%60%
Attack29%88%
Defense76%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 115 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.89 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Carmarthen Town Caerau (Ely)
HATHAT
Played86147613
Wins50%33%43%57%67%62%
Draws50%33%43%29%0%15%
Loses0%33%14%14%33%23%

Form: Carmarthen Town: WWDWDLDWDDWWDL • Caerau (Ely): WDWWWLDWWWWLL

League goals

Metric Carmarthen Town Caerau (Ely)
HATHAT
GF total7815121628
GF avg0.91.31.11.72.72.2
GA total3698715
GA avg0.41.00.61.11.21.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCarmarthen TownCaerau (Ely)
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%43%92%54%
1.521%14%69%31%
2.57%7%23%31%
3.57%0%23%0%
4.50%0%8%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCarmarthen TownCaerau (Ely)
HATHAT
Clean sheets538336
Failed to score224101

Penalties

MetricCarmarthen TownCaerau (Ely)
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total14

Streaks

MetricCarmarthen TownCaerau (Ely)
Wins24
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-42-00-5
Biggest losses—3-12-33-2
Goals For2445
Goals Against1333

Model comparison

MetricCarmarthen TownCaerau (Ely)
Form47%53%
Att25%75%
Def69%31%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h85%15%
Goals72%28%
Total57.0%43.0%

Advice: Double chance : Carmarthen Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.90 @ Bet365
Draw3.63 @ Pinnacle
Away2.31 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.05 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.59 @ Marathonbet
No2.25 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Carmarthen Town = 0.63 (league 1.71), Caerau (Ely) = 0.75 (league 1.44)

Caerau (Ely)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carmarthen Town 0 25.2% 18.9% 7.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0%
1 15.9% 11.9% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 27.1% · Draw 38.6% · Away win 34.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1