Fri, Jan 9 2026 • 19:30 • Newport Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.73) 1.12 (league 1.51)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.8% 30.5% 40.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.0%
0 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
Caerau (Ely)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newport City 0 13.5% 15.0% 8.4% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
1 12.0% 13.4% 7.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 5.3% 5.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNewport CityCaerau (Ely)
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack60%60%
Defense30%20%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Newport City Caerau (Ely)
HATHAT
Played89179817
Wins38%33%35%67%50%59%
Draws63%33%47%22%13%18%
Loses0%33%18%11%38%24%

Form: Newport City: WWDDDWWLDLWDDLDWD • Caerau (Ely): WDWWWLDWWWWLLDWLW

League goals

Metric Newport City Caerau (Ely)
HATHAT
GF total91524151732
GF avg1.11.71.41.72.11.9
GA total6142091120
GA avg0.81.61.21.01.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNewport CityCaerau (Ely)
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%71%88%59%
1.547%29%59%29%
2.518%12%18%29%
3.50%6%18%0%
4.50%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNewport CityCaerau (Ely)
HATHAT
Clean sheets325437
Failed to score224112

Penalties

MetricNewport CityCaerau (Ely)
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total16

Streaks

MetricNewport CityCaerau (Ely)
Wins24
Draws31
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-32-00-5
Biggest losses—2-02-33-0
Goals For2345
Goals Against2433

Model comparison

MetricNewport CityCaerau (Ely)
Form46%54%
Att50%50%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h67%33%
Goals57%43%
Total52.5%47.5%

Advice: Double chance : Newport City or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.46 @ Marathonbet
Draw3.50 @ Dafabet
Away2.72 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.96 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.31 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Newport City = 0.89 (league 1.73), Caerau (Ely) = 1.12 (league 1.51)

Caerau (Ely)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newport City 0 13.5% 15.0% 8.4% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
1 12.0% 13.4% 7.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 5.3% 5.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.8% · Draw 30.5% · Away win 40.5%

vtt 10 , vtd1