Sat, Sep 20 2025 • 14:30 • Estádio da Madeira
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.39) 1.25 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.6% 26.9% 36.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
10.2%
0 - 1
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 8.1% 10.1% 6.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
1 10.2% 12.8% 8.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.4% 8.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.7% 3.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNacionalArouca
Played55
Form27%33%
Attack36%64%
Defense27%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.613 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nacional Arouca
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins0%33%20%33%0%20%
Draws0%33%20%33%50%40%
Loses100%33%60%33%50%40%

Form: Nacional: LDLWL • Arouca: WLDDL

League goals

Metric Nacional Arouca
HATHAT
GF total134617
GF avg0.51.00.82.00.51.4
GA total6286713
GA avg3.00.71.62.03.52.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNacionalArouca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%80%60%100%
1.520%40%40%60%
2.50%20%40%40%
3.50%20%0%20%
4.50%0%0%20%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNacionalArouca
HATHAT
Clean sheets011000
Failed to score112112

Penalties

MetricNacionalArouca
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricNacionalArouca
Wins11
Draws12
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-23-1—
Biggest losses1-41-00-26-0
Goals For1231
Goals Against4136

Model comparison

MetricNacionalArouca
Form44%56%
Att36%64%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h38%62%
Goals45%55%
Total46.2%53.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Arouca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.32 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ Pinnacle
Away3.34 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.93 @ Marathonbet
No1.98 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.27 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.80 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nacional = 1.26 (league 1.39), Arouca = 1.25 (league 1.20)

Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 8.1% 10.1% 6.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
1 10.2% 12.8% 8.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.4% 8.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.7% 3.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.6% · Draw 26.9% · Away win 36.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1