Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 14:30 • Estádio João Cardoso
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.36 (league 1.38) 0.62 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.0% 46.2% 35.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
37.3%
0 - 1
23.3%
1 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
Estrela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 37.3% 23.3% 7.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.5% 8.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTondelaEstrela
Played55
Form7%20%
Attack14%21%
Defense29%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

55%
FT probability

2.5+

39%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tondela Estrela
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins0%0%0%0%0%0%
Draws50%0%20%33%100%60%
Loses50%100%80%67%0%40%

Form: Tondela: LLLDL • Estrela: DLDDL

League goals

Metric Tondela Estrela
HATHAT
GF total202213
GF avg1.00.00.40.70.50.6
GA total3710516
GA avg1.52.32.01.70.51.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTondelaEstrela
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.520%100%40%80%
1.520%60%20%40%
2.50%40%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTondelaEstrela
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score134213

Penalties

MetricTondelaEstrela
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricTondelaEstrela
Wins00
Draws12
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins————
Biggest losses0-13-00-2—
Goals For2021
Goals Against2321

Model comparison

MetricTondelaEstrela
Form25%75%
Att40%60%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total40.5%59.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Estrela and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.30 @ William Hill
Draw3.28 @ Marathonbet
Away3.77 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.37 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.63 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.13 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tondela = 0.36 (league 1.38), Estrela = 0.62 (league 1.20)

Estrela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 37.3% 23.3% 7.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.5% 8.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.0% · Draw 46.2% · Away win 35.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1