Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 14:30 • Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.19 (league 1.37) 0.76 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
67.6% 18.3% 11.6%
best score tips
2 - 0
12.5%
1 - 0
11.5%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Casa Pia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Moreirense 0 5.2% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.5% 8.7% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.5% 9.5% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.1% 7.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMoreirenseCasa Pia
Played55
Form60%47%
Attack50%42%
Defense50%42%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Moreirense Casa Pia
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins100%33%67%0%67%33%
Draws0%0%0%33%0%17%
Loses0%67%33%67%33%50%

Form: Moreirense: WWWLWL • Casa Pia: LWLLWD

League goals

Metric Moreirense Casa Pia
HATHAT
GF total718145
GF avg2.30.31.30.31.30.8
GA total257549
GA avg0.71.71.21.71.31.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMoreirenseCasa Pia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%67%50%67%
1.550%33%33%50%
2.517%17%0%17%
3.50%0%0%17%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMoreirenseCasa Pia
HATHAT
Clean sheets112022
Failed to score022213

Penalties

MetricMoreirenseCasa Pia
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricMoreirenseCasa Pia
Wins31
Draws00
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-10-2
Biggest losses3-00-24-0
Goals For3112
Goals Against1324

Model comparison

MetricMoreirenseCasa Pia
Form56%44%
Att55%45%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution76%24%
H2h40%60%
Goals38%63%
Total53.2%47.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Casa Pia

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.22 @ Betano
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away3.91 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.55 @ Betano
Under 2.51.60 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.24 @ 188Bet
No1.75 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Moreirense = 2.19 (league 1.37), Casa Pia = 0.76 (league 1.20)

Casa Pia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Moreirense 0 5.2% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.5% 8.7% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.5% 9.5% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.1% 7.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.6% · Draw 18.3% · Away win 11.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1