Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 14:30 • Estádio da Madeira
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.87 (league 1.37) 0.68 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.7% 35.8% 26.5%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.3%
1 - 0
18.5%
0 - 1
14.4%
Score & goals probability table
Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 21.3% 14.4% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.5% 12.5% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 8.1% 5.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNacionalMoreirense
Played55
Form40%60%
Attack45%64%
Defense36%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nacional Moreirense
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins0%50%29%100%33%71%
Draws0%25%14%0%0%0%
Loses100%25%57%0%67%29%

Form: Nacional: LDLWLLW • Moreirense: WWWLWLW

League goals

Metric Nacional Moreirense
HATHAT
GF total2469110
GF avg0.71.00.92.30.31.4
GA total8210358
GA avg2.70.51.40.81.71.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNacionalMoreirense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%71%71%71%
1.514%43%57%29%
2.50%14%14%14%
3.50%14%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNacionalMoreirense
HATHAT
Clean sheets022112
Failed to score112022

Penalties

MetricNacionalMoreirense
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricNacionalMoreirense
Wins13
Draws10
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins0-23-10-1
Biggest losses1-41-03-0
Goals For1231
Goals Against4113

Model comparison

MetricNacionalMoreirense
Form40%60%
Att42%58%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h29%71%
Goals30%70%
Total40.8%59.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Moreirense

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.35 @ 188Bet
Draw3.24 @ Marathonbet
Away3.67 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.35 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.05 @ 188Bet
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nacional = 0.87 (league 1.37), Moreirense = 0.68 (league 1.20)

Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 21.3% 14.4% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.5% 12.5% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 8.1% 5.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.7% · Draw 35.8% · Away win 26.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1