Sun, Nov 2 2025 • 18:00 • Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.04 (league 1.37) 1.41 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.2% 21.4% 26.2%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.3%
1 - 1
9.1%
2 - 0
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arouca 0 3.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
1 6.5% 9.1% 6.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
2 6.6% 9.3% 6.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.5% 6.3% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 2.3% 3.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAroucaMoreirense
Played55
Form27%40%
Attack15%40%
Defense35%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.68 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.610 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Arouca Moreirense
HATHAT
Played549549
Wins20%25%22%80%25%56%
Draws40%25%33%0%0%0%
Loses40%50%44%20%75%44%

Form: Arouca: WLDDLWLDL • Moreirense: WWWLWLWLL

League goals

Metric Arouca Moreirense
HATHAT
GF total731010313
GF avg1.40.81.12.00.81.4
GA total1113245813
GA avg2.23.32.71.02.01.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAroucaMoreirense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%100%78%78%
1.533%56%56%44%
2.522%44%11%22%
3.50%33%0%0%
4.50%22%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAroucaMoreirense
HATHAT
Clean sheets000112
Failed to score224022

Penalties

MetricAroucaMoreirense
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAroucaMoreirense
Wins13
Draws20
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-23-10-1
Biggest losses0-46-01-23-0
Goals For3232
Goals Against4623

Model comparison

MetricAroucaMoreirense
Form40%60%
Att27%73%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h29%71%
Goals29%71%
Total38.3%61.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Moreirense

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.61 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.26 @ 1xBet
Away2.96 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.93 @ 188Bet
No1.97 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.24 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.72 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Arouca = 2.04 (league 1.37), Moreirense = 1.41 (league 1.24)

Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arouca 0 3.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
1 6.5% 9.1% 6.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
2 6.6% 9.3% 6.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.5% 6.3% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 2.3% 3.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.2% · Draw 21.4% · Away win 26.2%

Vtot 6 , Vtod1