Fri, Nov 7 2025 • 20:15 • Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Match Finished
4 - 3
Expected Goals
2.40 (league 1.37) 0.64 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
72.9% 15.5% 8.1%
best score tips
2 - 0
13.7%
1 - 0
11.4%
3 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estoril 0 4.8% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 11.4% 7.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.7% 8.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.0% 7.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 6.6% 4.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEstorilArouca
Played55
Form33%27%
Attack54%23%
Defense54%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.213 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Estoril Arouca
HATHAT
Played55106410
Wins20%20%20%17%25%20%
Draws40%40%40%33%25%30%
Loses40%40%40%50%50%50%

Form: Estoril: DLDLWLLDDW • Arouca: WLDDLWLDLL

League goals

Metric Estoril Arouca
HATHAT
GF total510157310
GF avg1.02.01.51.20.81.0
GA total5914131326
GA avg1.01.81.42.23.32.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEstorilArouca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%90%50%100%
1.550%40%30%60%
2.520%10%20%40%
3.510%0%0%30%
4.50%0%0%20%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEstorilArouca
HATHAT
Clean sheets011000
Failed to score213325

Penalties

MetricEstorilArouca
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricEstorilArouca
Wins11
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-43-11-2
Biggest losses0-12-00-46-0
Goals For3432
Goals Against1346

Model comparison

MetricEstorilArouca
Form56%44%
Att70%30%
Def68%32%
Poisson Distribution80%20%
H2h50%50%
Goals58%42%
Total63.7%36.3%

Advice: Double chance : Estoril or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.05 @ 1xBet
Draw3.62 @ 1xBet
Away4.00 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.98 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.92 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.08 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Estoril = 2.40 (league 1.37), Arouca = 0.64 (league 1.24)

Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estoril 0 4.8% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 11.4% 7.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.7% 8.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.0% 7.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 6.6% 4.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 72.9% · Draw 15.5% · Away win 8.1%

Vtot 5 , Vtod1