Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 15:30 • Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.52 (league 1.42) 2.71 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
19.5% 17.3% 57.0%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.1%
1 - 3
7.3%
2 - 2
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
Alverca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Casa Pia 0 1.5% 3.9% 5.3% 4.8% 3.3% 1.8%
1 2.2% 6.0% 8.1% 7.3% 5.0% 2.7%
2 1.7% 4.6% 6.2% 5.6% 3.8% 2.0%
3 0.9% 2.3% 3.1% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0%
4 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCasa PiaAlverca
Played55
Form13%47%
Attack57%43%
Defense0%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)15 | 38 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Casa Pia Alverca
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins0%33%18%33%20%27%
Draws40%17%27%17%20%18%
Loses60%50%55%50%60%55%

Form: Casa Pia: LWLLWDLDLLD • Alverca: LLDLWLWWLLD

League goals

Metric Casa Pia Alverca
HATHAT
GF total67135712
GF avg1.21.21.20.81.41.1
GA total12122410919
GA avg2.42.02.21.71.81.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCasa PiaAlverca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%82%73%82%
1.545%73%27%64%
2.59%27%9%18%
3.50%27%0%9%
4.50%9%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCasa PiaAlverca
HATHAT
Clean sheets022202
Failed to score224213

Penalties

MetricCasa PiaAlverca
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricCasa PiaAlverca
Wins12
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-22-01-3
Biggest losses3-54-00-42-0
Goals For3223
Goals Against5442

Model comparison

MetricCasa PiaAlverca
Form22%78%
Att57%43%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h100%0%
Goals60%40%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Alverca and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.65 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ 188Bet
Away3.05 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.45 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.63 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.01 @ Pinnacle
No1.85 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Casa Pia = 1.52 (league 1.42), Alverca = 2.71 (league 1.24)

Alverca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Casa Pia 0 1.5% 3.9% 5.3% 4.8% 3.3% 1.8%
1 2.2% 6.0% 8.1% 7.3% 5.0% 2.7%
2 1.7% 4.6% 6.2% 5.6% 3.8% 2.0%
3 0.9% 2.3% 3.1% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0%
4 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 19.5% · Draw 17.3% · Away win 57.0%

vtt 8 , vtd1