Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 18:00 • Estádio da Madeira
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.15 (league 1.37) 3.18 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
0.7% 5.5% 83.5%
best score tips
0 - 3
19.3%
0 - 2
18.2%
0 - 4
15.3%
Score & goals probability table
Benfica
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 3.6% 11.5% 18.2% 19.3% 15.3% 9.7%
1 0.5% 1.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4%
2 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNacionalBenfica
Played55
Form53%73%
Attack43%86%
Defense64%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.212 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nacional Benfica
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins20%33%27%50%80%64%
Draws0%50%27%50%20%36%
Loses80%17%45%0%0%0%

Form: Nacional: LDLWLLWWDLD • Benfica: WWWDWDWDWWD

League goals

Metric Nacional Benfica
HATHAT
GF total561114923
GF avg1.01.01.02.31.82.1
GA total11415516
GA avg2.20.71.40.80.20.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNacionalBenfica
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%82%91%45%
1.518%36%64%9%
2.59%9%36%0%
3.50%9%9%0%
4.50%0%9%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNacionalBenfica
HATHAT
Clean sheets022246
Failed to score213011

Penalties

MetricNacionalBenfica
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total37

Streaks

MetricNacionalBenfica
Wins23
Draws11
Losses20

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-20-25-00-3
Biggest losses1-41-0——
Goals For3253
Goals Against4121

Model comparison

MetricNacionalBenfica
Form42%58%
Att33%67%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution4%96%
H2h7%93%
Goals10%90%
Total22.3%77.8%

Advice: Winner : Benfica

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home8.00 @ Unibet
Draw5.13 @ Pinnacle
Away1.47 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.87 @ Betano
Under 2.52.03 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.12 @ Pinnacle
No1.80 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nacional = 0.15 (league 1.37), Benfica = 3.18 (league 1.25)

Benfica
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 3.6% 11.5% 18.2% 19.3% 15.3% 9.7%
1 0.5% 1.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4%
2 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 0.7% · Draw 5.5% · Away win 83.5%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1