Mon, Dec 15 2025 • 17:30 • Estádio da Madeira
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.38 (league 1.38) 1.25 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.6% 26.2% 33.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
10.0%
0 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
Tondela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 7.2% 9.0% 5.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
1 10.0% 12.4% 7.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.9% 8.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.2% 3.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNacionalTondela
Played55
Form13%27%
Attack19%19%
Defense63%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nacional Tondela
HATHAT
Played67136713
Wins17%29%23%0%29%15%
Draws0%43%23%33%14%23%
Loses83%29%54%67%57%62%

Form: Nacional: LDLWLLWWDLDLL • Tondela: LLLDLDWLLDLWL

League goals

Metric Nacional Tondela
HATHAT
GF total6612257
GF avg1.00.90.90.30.70.5
GA total1351891322
GA avg2.20.71.41.51.91.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNacionalTondela
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%85%31%85%
1.515%38%23%54%
2.58%8%0%31%
3.50%8%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNacionalTondela
HATHAT
Clean sheets022112
Failed to score224549

Penalties

MetricNacionalTondela
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricNacionalTondela
Wins21
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-20-2—1-2
Biggest losses1-41-00-33-0
Goals For3222
Goals Against4133

Model comparison

MetricNacionalTondela
Form33%67%
Att50%50%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total48.8%51.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Tondela

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.42 @ 1xBet
Draw3.24 @ 1xBet
Away3.28 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ SBO
Under 2.51.76 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ Pinnacle
No1.99 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nacional = 1.38 (league 1.38), Tondela = 1.25 (league 1.23)

Tondela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 7.2% 9.0% 5.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
1 10.0% 12.4% 7.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.9% 8.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.2% 3.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.6% · Draw 26.2% · Away win 33.7%

Vtot 6 , Vtod1