Sat, Dec 20 2025 • 20:30 • Estádio José Gomes
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.94 (league 1.37) 1.37 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
49.4% 22.1% 26.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.7%
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 3.7% 5.0% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 7.1% 9.7% 6.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.9% 9.4% 6.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
3 4.4% 6.1% 4.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
4 2.2% 2.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEstrelaMoreirense
Played55
Form47%33%
Attack91%73%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.411 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Estrela Moreirense
HATHAT
Played77147714
Wins29%14%21%57%29%43%
Draws29%43%36%14%14%14%
Loses43%43%43%29%57%43%

Form: Estrela: DLDDLDWLLWDLWL • Moreirense: WWWLWLWLLWLDDL

League goals

Metric Estrela Moreirense
HATHAT
GF total1071712921
GF avg1.41.01.21.71.31.5
GA total91322111324
GA avg1.31.91.61.61.91.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEstrelaMoreirense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%79%79%79%
1.529%50%57%57%
2.521%21%14%29%
3.57%7%0%7%
4.57%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEstrelaMoreirense
HATHAT
Clean sheets123123
Failed to score246123

Penalties

MetricEstrelaMoreirense
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricEstrelaMoreirense
Wins13
Draws22
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-03-53-10-2
Biggest losses0-24-00-43-0
Goals For3533
Goals Against2443

Model comparison

MetricEstrelaMoreirense
Form58%42%
Att56%44%
Def48%52%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h38%62%
Goals44%56%
Total50.5%49.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Estrela or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.00 @ Superbet
Draw3.10 @ 188Bet
Away2.90 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.60 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.56 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.05 @ Bet365
No1.87 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Estrela = 1.94 (league 1.37), Moreirense = 1.37 (league 1.24)

Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 3.7% 5.0% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 7.1% 9.7% 6.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.9% 9.4% 6.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
3 4.4% 6.1% 4.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
4 2.2% 2.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.4% · Draw 22.1% · Away win 26.8%

Vtot 11 , Vtod1