Sun, Dec 21 2025 • 18:00 • Estádio João Cardoso
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.41 (league 1.38) 1.22 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.6% 30.8% 56.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
23.8%
0 - 0
19.6%
0 - 2
14.5%
Score & goals probability table
Casa Pia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 19.6% 23.8% 14.5% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4%
1 8.1% 9.9% 6.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
2 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTondelaCasa Pia
Played55
Form27%13%
Attack40%60%
Defense20%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tondela Casa Pia
HATHAT
Played68147714
Wins0%25%14%0%29%14%
Draws33%13%21%43%14%29%
Loses67%63%64%57%57%57%

Form: Tondela: LLLDLDWLLDLWLL • Casa Pia: LWLLWDLDLLDLLD

League goals

Metric Tondela Casa Pia
HATHAT
GF total2687714
GF avg0.30.80.61.01.01.0
GA total91625151328
GA avg1.52.01.82.11.92.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTondelaCasa Pia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.536%86%57%86%
1.521%57%36%64%
2.50%36%7%21%
3.50%0%0%21%
4.50%0%0%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTondelaCasa Pia
HATHAT
Clean sheets112022
Failed to score549336

Penalties

MetricTondelaCasa Pia
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricTondelaCasa Pia
Wins11
Draws11
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-2—0-2
Biggest losses0-33-03-54-0
Goals For2232
Goals Against3354

Model comparison

MetricTondelaCasa Pia
Form67%33%
Att40%60%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution27%73%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total48.0%52.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Casa Pia

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.19 @ 188Bet
Draw3.33 @ Pinnacle
Away3.75 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.49 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.60 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ Pinnacle
No1.75 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tondela = 0.41 (league 1.38), Casa Pia = 1.22 (league 1.23)

Casa Pia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 19.6% 23.8% 14.5% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4%
1 8.1% 9.9% 6.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
2 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.6% · Draw 30.8% · Away win 56.5%

Vtot 5 , Vtod2