Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 18:00 • Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.43) 1.03 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.9% 17.9% 14.7%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.6%
2 - 0
9.4%
1 - 1
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
Tondela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Moreirense 0 3.3% 3.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 7.9% 8.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.4% 9.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.4% 7.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 4.4% 4.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMoreirenseTondela
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack50%43%
Defense36%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Moreirense Tondela
HATHAT
Played79168816
Wins57%33%44%13%25%19%
Draws14%22%19%25%13%19%
Loses29%44%38%63%63%63%

Form: Moreirense: WWWLWLWLLWLDDLDW • Tondela: LLLDLDWLLDLWLLLW

League goals

Metric Moreirense Tondela
HATHAT
GF total1211236612
GF avg1.71.21.40.80.80.8
GA total111324121628
GA avg1.61.41.51.52.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMoreirenseTondela
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%69%44%88%
1.556%50%25%56%
2.513%25%6%31%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMoreirenseTondela
HATHAT
Clean sheets145112
Failed to score134549

Penalties

MetricMoreirenseTondela
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total04

Streaks

MetricMoreirenseTondela
Wins31
Draws21
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-23-11-2
Biggest losses0-43-00-33-0
Goals For3332
Goals Against4333

Model comparison

MetricMoreirenseTondela
Form50%50%
Att54%46%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h50%50%
Goals53%47%
Total54.3%45.7%

Advice: Double chance : Moreirense or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.16 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ 10Bet
Away4.00 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.76 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ 188Bet
No1.98 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Moreirense = 2.38 (league 1.43), Tondela = 1.03 (league 1.25)

Tondela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Moreirense 0 3.3% 3.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 7.9% 8.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.4% 9.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.4% 7.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 4.4% 4.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.9% · Draw 17.9% · Away win 14.7%

vtt 6 , vtd1