Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 15:30 • Estádio da Madeira
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.20 (league 1.41) 0.96 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.1% 29.2% 29.5%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.8%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
Santa Clara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 11.5% 11.1% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.8% 13.3% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.2% 8.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNacionalSanta Clara
Played55
Form27%33%
Attack50%14%
Defense43%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.42 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nacional Santa Clara
HATHAT
Played79169716
Wins29%22%25%33%14%25%
Draws0%44%25%22%29%25%
Loses71%33%50%44%57%50%

Form: Nacional: LDLWLLWWDLDLLWDL • Santa Clara: LLDWDWLLWLLDWLDL

League goals

Metric Nacional Santa Clara
HATHAT
GF total99187411
GF avg1.31.01.10.80.60.7
GA total149237916
GA avg2.01.01.40.81.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNacionalSanta Clara
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%88%56%69%
1.525%44%13%25%
2.513%6%0%6%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNacionalSanta Clara
HATHAT
Clean sheets022415
Failed to score224437

Penalties

MetricNacionalSanta Clara
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total45

Streaks

MetricNacionalSanta Clara
Wins21
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-22-00-1
Biggest losses1-42-11-23-0
Goals For3221
Goals Against4223

Model comparison

MetricNacionalSanta Clara
Form44%56%
Att78%22%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h62%38%
Goals63%38%
Total55.0%45.2%

Advice: Double chance : Nacional or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.85 @ Unibet
Draw3.05 @ 188Bet
Away2.94 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.80 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.50 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Betfair
No1.74 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nacional = 1.20 (league 1.41), Santa Clara = 0.96 (league 1.24)

Santa Clara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 11.5% 11.1% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.8% 13.3% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.2% 8.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.1% · Draw 29.2% · Away win 29.5%

vtt 11 , vtd1