Sat, Jan 3 2026 • 15:30 • Estádio João Cardoso
Match Finished
3 - 1
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 1.43) 1.28 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.5% 28.9% 47.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.8%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 12.3% 15.8% 10.1% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4%
1 10.0% 12.8% 8.2% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3%
2 4.0% 5.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTondelaArouca
Played55
Form20%33%
Attack20%27%
Defense47%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tondela Arouca
HATHAT
Played78159716
Wins0%25%13%22%14%19%
Draws29%13%20%33%29%31%
Loses71%63%67%44%57%50%

Form: Tondela: LLLDLDWLLDLWLLL • Arouca: WLDDLWLDLLLLLWDD

League goals

Metric Tondela Arouca
HATHAT
GF total36910717
GF avg0.40.80.61.11.01.1
GA total111627192039
GA avg1.62.01.82.12.92.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTondelaArouca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.540%87%56%88%
1.520%60%31%63%
2.50%33%19%44%
3.50%0%0%31%
4.50%0%0%13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTondelaArouca
HATHAT
Clean sheets112112
Failed to score549437

Penalties

MetricTondelaArouca
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total40

Streaks

MetricTondelaArouca
Wins11
Draws12
Losses35

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-23-11-2
Biggest losses0-33-00-46-0
Goals For2233
Goals Against3346

Model comparison

MetricTondelaArouca
Form38%63%
Att43%57%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h38%62%
Goals42%58%
Total42.5%57.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Arouca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.41 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.34 @ Pinnacle
Away3.25 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.29 @ SBO
Under 2.51.81 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.93 @ Pinnacle
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tondela = 0.81 (league 1.43), Arouca = 1.28 (league 1.25)

Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 12.3% 15.8% 10.1% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4%
1 10.0% 12.8% 8.2% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3%
2 4.0% 5.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.5% · Draw 28.9% · Away win 47.4%

vtt 6 , vtd1