Fri, Jan 2 2026 • 20:45 • Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.41) 1.21 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.1% 29.1% 41.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.8%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes 0 11.5% 13.8% 8.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.0% 13.3% 8.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 5.3% 6.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGuimaraesNacional
Played55
Form53%33%
Attack43%50%
Defense71%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Guimaraes Nacional
HATHAT
Played88167815
Wins38%38%38%29%25%27%
Draws38%13%25%0%50%27%
Loses25%50%38%71%25%47%

Form: Guimaraes: LWLDWDLWLLWWDWLD • Nacional: LDLWLLWWDLDLLWD

League goals

Metric Guimaraes Nacional
HATHAT
GF total124169817
GF avg1.50.51.01.31.01.1
GA total1292114721
GA avg1.51.11.32.00.91.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGuimaraesNacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%63%73%87%
1.525%44%27%40%
2.513%19%13%7%
3.56%6%0%7%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGuimaraesNacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets246022
Failed to score257224

Penalties

MetricGuimaraesNacional
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricGuimaraesNacional
Wins22
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-23-10-2
Biggest losses1-43-01-41-0
Goals For4232
Goals Against4342

Model comparison

MetricGuimaraesNacional
Form62%38%
Att46%54%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h62%38%
Goals56%44%
Total55.7%44.3%

Advice: Double chance : Guimaraes or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.92 @ 1xBet
Draw3.54 @ Pinnacle
Away4.50 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.21 @ SBO
Under 2.51.74 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.05 @ 188Bet
No1.88 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Guimaraes = 0.96 (league 1.41), Nacional = 1.21 (league 1.24)

Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes 0 11.5% 13.8% 8.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.0% 13.3% 8.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 5.3% 6.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away win 41.6%

vtt 5 , vtd1