Sun, Jan 25 2026 • 15:30 • Estádio da Madeira
Not Started
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Expected Goals
1.91 (league 1.41) 2.18 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.4% 20.3% 42.6%
best score tips
1 - 2
7.6%
2 - 2
7.3%
1 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
Rio Ave
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 1.7% 3.7% 4.0% 2.9% 1.6% 0.7%
1 3.2% 7.0% 7.6% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3%
2 3.1% 6.7% 7.3% 5.3% 2.9% 1.2%
3 1.9% 4.2% 4.6% 3.4% 1.8% 0.8%
4 0.9% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNacionalRio Ave
Played55
Form33%27%
Attack100%50%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nacional Rio Ave
HATHAT
Played810189918
Wins25%20%22%22%22%22%
Draws13%40%28%33%56%44%
Loses63%40%50%44%22%33%

Form: Nacional: LDLWLLWWDLDLLWDLDL • Rio Ave: DDDLLDDWWLDDWLDLWL

League goals

Metric Nacional Rio Ave
HATHAT
GF total121022101222
GF avg1.51.01.21.11.31.2
GA total171128151631
GA avg2.11.11.61.71.81.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNacionalRio Ave
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%89%67%89%
1.528%50%39%44%
2.517%11%17%28%
3.50%6%0%11%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNacionalRio Ave
HATHAT
Clean sheets022112
Failed to score224426

Penalties

MetricNacionalRio Ave
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total52

Streaks

MetricNacionalRio Ave
Wins22
Draws13
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-23-01-2
Biggest losses1-42-10-44-0
Goals For3233
Goals Against4244

Model comparison

MetricNacionalRio Ave
Form56%44%
Att67%33%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h50%50%
Goals53%47%
Total53.7%46.3%

Advice: Double chance : Nacional or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.28 @ Unibet
Draw3.45 @ 188Bet
Away3.34 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.01 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.88 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Betfair
No2.05 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nacional = 1.91 (league 1.41), Rio Ave = 2.18 (league 1.25)

Rio Ave
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional 0 1.7% 3.7% 4.0% 2.9% 1.6% 0.7%
1 3.2% 7.0% 7.6% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3%
2 3.1% 6.7% 7.3% 5.3% 2.9% 1.2%
3 1.9% 4.2% 4.6% 3.4% 1.8% 0.8%
4 0.9% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.4% · Draw 20.3% · Away win 42.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1