Sat, Feb 7 2026 • 18:00 • Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.93 (league 1.43) 0.67 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
75.2% 11.4% 5.7%
best score tips
2 - 0
11.7%
3 - 0
11.4%
4 - 0
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Tondela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estoril 0 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 8.0% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 7.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.4% 7.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.4% 5.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.9% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEstorilTondela
Played55
Form80%27%
Attack100%20%
Defense47%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)18 | 3.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Estoril Tondela
HATHAT
Played101020101020
Wins50%30%40%10%20%15%
Draws30%20%25%30%10%20%
Loses20%50%35%60%70%65%

Form: Estoril: DLDLWLLDDWWLDLWWLWWW • Tondela: LLLDLDWLLDLWLLLWLLLD

League goals

Metric Estoril Tondela
HATHAT
GF total2120416612
GF avg2.12.02.10.60.60.6
GA total141933132033
GA avg1.41.91.71.32.01.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEstorilTondela
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%85%35%85%
1.555%50%20%50%
2.540%25%5%30%
3.530%5%0%0%
4.55%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEstorilTondela
HATHAT
Clean sheets123213
Failed to score2357613

Penalties

MetricEstorilTondela
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total54

Streaks

MetricEstorilTondela
Wins21
Draws21
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-53-11-2
Biggest losses0-14-00-33-0
Goals For4532
Goals Against3433

Model comparison

MetricEstorilTondela
Form75%25%
Att86%14%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution81%19%
H2h62%38%
Goals50%50%
Total66.2%33.8%

Advice: Winner : Estoril

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.72 @ Unibet
Draw4.15 @ Pinnacle
Away4.98 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ 188Bet
No2.13 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Estoril = 2.93 (league 1.43), Tondela = 0.67 (league 1.25)

Tondela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estoril 0 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 8.0% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 7.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 11.4% 7.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.4% 5.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.9% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 75.2% · Draw 11.4% · Away win 5.7%

vtt 4 , vtd1