Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 15:30 • Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.93 (league 1.43) 1.83 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.9% 21.4% 36.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
8.3%
2 - 1
7.9%
1 - 2
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Casa Pia 0 2.3% 4.3% 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4%
1 4.5% 8.3% 7.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8%
2 4.4% 7.9% 7.3% 4.4% 2.0% 0.7%
3 2.8% 5.1% 4.7% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
4 1.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCasa PiaArouca
Played55
Form33%60%
Attack43%64%
Defense29%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

92%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Casa Pia Arouca
HATHAT
Played101121111021
Wins10%27%19%27%30%29%
Draws50%18%33%27%20%24%
Loses40%55%48%45%50%48%

Form: Casa Pia: LWLLWDLDLLDLLDWDLLDWD • Arouca: WLDDLWLDLLLLLWDDLWLWW

League goals

Metric Casa Pia Arouca
HATHAT
GF total121022141226
GF avg1.20.91.01.31.21.2
GA total192039232346
GA avg1.91.81.92.12.32.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCasa PiaArouca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%81%67%81%
1.538%57%33%62%
2.510%29%24%38%
3.50%14%0%24%
4.50%5%0%10%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCasa PiaArouca
HATHAT
Clean sheets134134
Failed to score459437

Penalties

MetricCasa PiaArouca
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricCasa PiaArouca
Wins11
Draws12
Losses25

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-23-10-3
Biggest losses3-54-00-46-0
Goals For3233
Goals Against5446

Model comparison

MetricCasa PiaArouca
Form36%64%
Att40%60%
Def41%59%
Poisson Distribution50%50%
H2h93%7%
Goals88%13%
Total58.0%42.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Arouca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.03 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away2.75 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.27 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ 188Bet
No1.95 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Casa Pia = 1.93 (league 1.43), Arouca = 1.83 (league 1.25)

Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Casa Pia 0 2.3% 4.3% 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4%
1 4.5% 8.3% 7.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8%
2 4.4% 7.9% 7.3% 4.4% 2.0% 0.7%
3 2.8% 5.1% 4.7% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
4 1.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.9% · Draw 21.4% · Away win 36.2%

vtt 4 , vtd1