Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 18:00 • Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.95 (league 1.43) 1.15 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.7% 21.9% 21.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.1%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
Estrela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes 0 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 8.8% 10.1% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.9% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.6% 6.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGuimaraesEstrela
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack50%36%
Defense36%7%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.813 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Guimaraes Estrela
HATHAT
Played111021111021
Wins45%30%38%27%20%24%
Draws27%10%19%36%40%38%
Loses27%60%43%36%40%38%

Form: Guimaraes: LWLDWDLWLLWWDWLDWLLWL • Estrela: DLDDLDWLLWDLWLDWDLLDW

League goals

Metric Guimaraes Estrela
HATHAT
GF total15823141125
GF avg1.40.81.11.31.11.2
GA total141630172037
GA avg1.31.61.41.52.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGuimaraesEstrela
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%67%57%76%
1.533%43%29%52%
2.510%24%24%29%
3.55%10%5%14%
4.50%0%5%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGuimaraesEstrela
HATHAT
Clean sheets347325
Failed to score358459

Penalties

MetricGuimaraesEstrela
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricGuimaraesEstrela
Wins21
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-23-03-5
Biggest losses1-43-00-54-0
Goals For4235
Goals Against4454

Model comparison

MetricGuimaraesEstrela
Form55%45%
Att58%42%
Def59%41%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h71%29%
Goals75%25%
Total63.3%36.7%

Advice: Double chance : Guimaraes or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.73 @ 1xBet
Draw3.72 @ Pinnacle
Away5.67 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.17 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.75 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.18 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Guimaraes = 1.95 (league 1.43), Estrela = 1.15 (league 1.25)

Estrela
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes 0 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 8.8% 10.1% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.9% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.6% 6.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.7% · Draw 21.9% · Away win 21.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1