Sun, Mar 1 2026 • 18:00 • Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.37 (league 1.43) 1.83 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.6% 22.8% 47.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.2%
1 - 2
9.4%
0 - 1
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Casa Pia 0 4.1% 7.5% 6.8% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7%
1 5.6% 10.2% 9.4% 5.7% 2.6% 0.9%
2 3.8% 7.0% 6.4% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6%
3 1.7% 3.2% 2.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
4 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCasa PiaMoreirense
Played55
Form53%40%
Attack67%33%
Defense33%42%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Casa Pia Moreirense
HATHAT
Played111223111223
Wins18%25%22%55%33%43%
Draws45%17%30%9%17%13%
Loses36%58%48%36%50%43%

Form: Casa Pia: LWLLWDLDLLDLLDWDLLDWDWL • Moreirense: WWWLWLWLLWLDDLDWWLWLLWL

League goals

Metric Casa Pia Moreirense
HATHAT
GF total151025151429
GF avg1.40.81.11.41.21.3
GA total212243161733
GA avg1.91.81.91.51.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCasa PiaMoreirense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%83%74%70%
1.539%61%43%48%
2.513%26%9%22%
3.50%13%0%4%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCasa PiaMoreirense
HATHAT
Clean sheets134347
Failed to score4610246

Penalties

MetricCasa PiaMoreirense
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricCasa PiaMoreirense
Wins13
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-20-23-10-2
Biggest losses3-54-00-43-0
Goals For3233
Goals Against5443

Model comparison

MetricCasa PiaMoreirense
Form57%43%
Att67%33%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h40%60%
Goals56%44%
Total51.3%48.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Moreirense

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.69 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.02 @ 1xBet
Away3.06 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.53 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.58 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.08 @ 188Bet
No1.84 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Casa Pia = 1.37 (league 1.43), Moreirense = 1.83 (league 1.25)

Moreirense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Casa Pia 0 4.1% 7.5% 6.8% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7%
1 5.6% 10.2% 9.4% 5.7% 2.6% 0.9%
2 3.8% 7.0% 6.4% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6%
3 1.7% 3.2% 2.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
4 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.6% · Draw 22.8% · Away win 47.2%

vtt 16 , vtd1