Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 20:30 • Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.95 (league 1.43) 1.15 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.7% 21.9% 21.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.1%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
Alverca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes 0 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 8.8% 10.1% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.9% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.6% 6.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGuimaraesAlverca
Played55
Form40%20%
Attack64%29%
Defense21%29%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.84 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

80%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Guimaraes Alverca
HATHAT
Played121123121123
Wins50%27%39%42%18%30%
Draws25%9%17%25%18%22%
Loses25%64%43%33%64%48%

Form: Guimaraes: LWLDWDLWLLWWDWLDWLLWLWL • Alverca: LLDLWLWWLLDWWLLLWWLDLDD

League goals

Metric Guimaraes Alverca
HATHAT
GF total171027111223
GF avg1.40.91.20.91.11.0
GA total151934162238
GA avg1.31.71.51.32.01.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGuimaraesAlverca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%70%74%78%
1.539%43%22%48%
2.59%26%4%22%
3.54%9%0%13%
4.50%0%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGuimaraesAlverca
HATHAT
Clean sheets347415
Failed to score358336

Penalties

MetricGuimaraesAlverca
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total35

Streaks

MetricGuimaraesAlverca
Wins22
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-22-01-3
Biggest losses1-43-00-45-0
Goals For4223
Goals Against4445

Model comparison

MetricGuimaraesAlverca
Form67%33%
Att69%31%
Def48%52%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total61.5%38.5%

Advice: Double chance : Guimaraes or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.86 @ 1xBet
Draw3.60 @ Bet365
Away4.78 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.07 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.83 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ 188Bet
No1.95 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Guimaraes = 1.95 (league 1.43), Alverca = 1.15 (league 1.25)

Alverca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes 0 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
1 8.8% 10.1% 5.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.9% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.6% 6.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.7% · Draw 21.9% · Away win 21.9%

vtt 6 , vtd1