Mon, Mar 9 2026 • 20:15 • Estádio João Cardoso
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.12 (league 1.43) 1.05 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.0% 29.3% 33.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.4%
1 - 0
12.8%
0 - 1
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
Rio Ave
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 11.4% 12.0% 6.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
1 12.8% 13.4% 7.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
2 7.2% 7.5% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
3 2.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTondelaRio Ave
Played55
Form47%7%
Attack50%7%
Defense64%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.41 | 0.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tondela Rio Ave
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins8%25%17%17%17%17%
Draws42%17%29%33%42%38%
Loses50%58%54%50%42%46%

Form: Tondela: LLLDLDWLLDLWLLLWLLLDDDWD • Rio Ave: DDDLLDDWWLDDWLDLWLLLLLLD

League goals

Metric Tondela Rio Ave
HATHAT
GF total91019111223
GF avg0.80.80.80.91.01.0
GA total162238202444
GA avg1.31.81.61.72.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTondelaRio Ave
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.546%83%54%88%
1.529%50%29%50%
2.54%25%13%33%
3.50%0%0%13%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTondelaRio Ave
HATHAT
Clean sheets224213
Failed to score76136511

Penalties

MetricTondelaRio Ave
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total62

Streaks

MetricTondelaRio Ave
Wins12
Draws33
Losses36

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-23-01-2
Biggest losses0-33-00-44-0
Goals For3233
Goals Against3344

Model comparison

MetricTondelaRio Ave
Form88%13%
Att88%13%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h29%71%
Goals33%67%
Total58.3%42.0%

Advice: Double chance : Tondela or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.23 @ 1xBet
Draw3.33 @ Pinnacle
Away3.60 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No2.02 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tondela = 1.12 (league 1.43), Rio Ave = 1.05 (league 1.24)

Rio Ave
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tondela 0 11.4% 12.0% 6.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
1 12.8% 13.4% 7.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
2 7.2% 7.5% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
3 2.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.0% · Draw 29.3% · Away win 33.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1