Primeira Liga — Portugal
Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 18:00 • Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Not Started

Casa Pia

—

SC Braga

Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.45) 2.55 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
9.9% 15.4% 70.1%
best score tips
0 - 2
11.1%
0 - 3
9.4%
1 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
SC Braga
0 1 2 3 4 5
Casa Pia 0 3.4% 8.7% 11.1% 9.4% 6.0% 3.1%
1 2.8% 7.2% 9.2% 7.8% 5.0% 2.5%
2 1.2% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1%
3 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

SC Braga carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 208 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Casa Pia -15.1, SC Braga -5.0.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Casa Pia Elo 1453.4 · -15.1
vs
SC Braga Elo 1696.6 · -5.0
Elo gapSC Braga +208
Home / draw / away19% / 18% / 63%
Expected home share23%
Combined Elo3150
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3150
Elo home share 23%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Casa Pia SC Braga
Overall Elo1453.41696.6
Form Elo1450.61696.8
Home / Away Elo1476.21581.7
Attack Elo1447.91769.3
Defense Elo1425.41709
Last 5 Elo change-15.1-5.0

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Casa Pia last-5 Elo change: -15.1; SC Braga last-5 Elo change: -5.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCasa PiaSC Braga
Played55
Form20%53%
Attack18%64%
Defense27%45%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

82%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Casa Pia SC Braga
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins14%20%17%53%50%52%
Draws57%20%38%27%29%28%
Loses29%60%45%20%21%21%
Casa PiaLWLLWDLDLLDLLDWDLLDWDWLDDLDLD
SC BragaWWDDLDLDWLWWWWLDDWWWWLWWDLWWD

League goals

Metric Casa Pia SC Braga
HATHAT
GF total171128312657
GF avg1.20.71.02.11.92.0
GA total232952151429
GA avg1.61.91.81.01.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCasa PiaSC Braga
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.555%79%90%62%
1.531%55%59%34%
2.510%28%31%3%
3.50%14%14%0%
4.50%3%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCasa PiaSC Braga
HATHAT
Clean sheets2466511
Failed to score5813213

Penalties

MetricCasa PiaSC Braga
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%15 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total215

Streaks

MetricCasa PiaSC Braga
Wins14
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-20-25-00-4
Biggest losses3-54-01-22-1
Goals For3254
Goals Against5423

Model comparison

MetricCasa PiaSC Braga
Form27%73%
Att22%78%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution24%76%
H2h40%60%
Goals38%62%
Total32.3%67.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.10 @ Unibet
Draw4.22 @ Pinnacle
Away1.62 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.96 @ SBO
Under 2.51.94 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ Unibet
No1.87 @ Betfair
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League standings

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