Fri, Mar 20 2026 • 20:15 • Estádio José Gomes
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.43 (league 1.43) 1.03 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
45.8% 26.6% 27.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
12.2%
2 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
Casa Pia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 8.5% 8.8% 4.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
1 12.2% 12.6% 6.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.7% 9.0% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 4.1% 4.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEstrelaCasa Pia
Played55
Form13%40%
Attack36%36%
Defense27%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Estrela Casa Pia
HATHAT
Played131326121325
Wins23%15%19%17%23%20%
Draws38%38%38%50%23%36%
Loses38%46%42%33%54%44%

Form: Estrela: DLDDLDWLLWDLWLDWDLLDWLLDDL • Casa Pia: LWLLWDLDLLDLLDWDLLDWDWLDD

League goals

Metric Estrela Casa Pia
HATHAT
GF total161329161026
GF avg1.21.01.11.30.81.0
GA total212445222244
GA avg1.61.81.71.81.71.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEstrelaCasa Pia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.558%77%56%80%
1.527%58%36%56%
2.519%23%12%24%
3.54%12%0%12%
4.54%4%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEstrelaCasa Pia
HATHAT
Clean sheets336145
Failed to score56114711

Penalties

MetricEstrelaCasa Pia
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricEstrelaCasa Pia
Wins11
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-03-53-20-2
Biggest losses0-54-03-54-0
Goals For3532
Goals Against5454

Model comparison

MetricEstrelaCasa Pia
Form25%75%
Att50%50%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h60%40%
Goals60%40%
Total48.5%51.5%

Advice: Double chance : Estrela or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.69 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away3.04 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ SBO
Under 2.51.66 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ Pinnacle
No1.91 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Estrela = 1.43 (league 1.43), Casa Pia = 1.03 (league 1.24)

Casa Pia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 8.5% 8.8% 4.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
1 12.2% 12.6% 6.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.7% 9.0% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 4.1% 4.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 45.8% · Draw 26.6% · Away win 27.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1