Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 19:15 •
FC Alverca Sports Complex
Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.45)
1.29 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.5% | 25.5% | 33.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
9.3%
2 - 1
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Arouca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alverca | 0 | 6.4% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Alverca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 60 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Alverca +3.5, Arouca +22.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Alverca
vs
Arouca
Elo gapAlverca +60
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3000.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3000.2
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1512.5 | 1487.7 |
| Form Elo | 1510.5 | 1499.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.3 | 1481.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1508 | 1503.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1456.3 | 1419 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.5 | +22.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Alverca last-5 Elo change: +3.5; Arouca last-5 Elo change: +22.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 73% | 55% |
| Defense | 18% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Draws | 27% | 27% | 27% | 20% | 13% | 17% |
| Loses | 33% | 53% | 43% | 40% | 60% | 50% |
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AroucaWLDDLWLDLLLLLWDDLWLWWLWLLLWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 17 | 32 | 22 | 16 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 21 | 27 | 48 | 27 | 31 | 58 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alverca | Arouca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 80% | 70% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 43% | 33% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 20% | 23% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 0-4 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 47.3% | 52.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.37 @ 1xBet
Draw3.35 @ Dafabet
Away3.28 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.11 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.79 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ Betfair
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League standings
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