Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 19:15 •
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Expected Goals
2.23 (league 1.45)
0.53 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.8% | 16.3% | 7.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
15.7%
1 - 0
14.1%
3 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Casa Pia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| GIL Vicente | 0 | 6.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.1% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.7% | 8.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.7% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
GIL Vicente carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 100 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: GIL Vicente -19.2, Casa Pia -24.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
GIL Vicente
vs
Casa Pia
Elo gapGIL Vicente +100
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo2961.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2961.1
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1513.2 | 1447.9 |
| Form Elo | 1502.7 | 1436.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.4 | 1469.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1518.8 | 1441.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1576.2 | 1433.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.2 | -24.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. GIL Vicente last-5 Elo change: -19.2; Casa Pia last-5 Elo change: -24.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 13% |
| Attack | 64% | 18% |
| Defense | 45% | 18% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 53% | 27% | 40% | 13% | 20% | 17% |
| Draws | 20% | 47% | 33% | 53% | 20% | 37% |
| Loses | 27% | 27% | 27% | 33% | 60% | 47% |
GIL VicenteWLDWWWLWWWDLDDDDDWLWWWLLDDLWDL
Casa PiaLWLLWDLDLLDLLDWDLLDWDWLDDLDLDL
League goals
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 19 | 44 | 17 | 11 | 28 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 13 | 18 | 31 | 24 | 29 | 53 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 63% | 53% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 30% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 7% | 10% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 3-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 78% | 22% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 66.0% | 34.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.65 @ 1xBet
Draw3.95 @ Betano
Away5.92 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.09 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.83 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.80 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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