Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:30 •
Estádio João Cardoso
Expected Goals
0.63 (league 1.45)
0.87 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.7% | 36.3% | 39.0% |
best score tips
0 - 0
22.2%
0 - 1
19.4%
1 - 0
14.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Nacional | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tondela | 0 | 22.2% | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.0% | 12.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 40% |
| Attack | 18% | 27% |
| Defense | 9% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 14 | 29 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 7% | 21% | 14% | 33% | 13% | 23% |
| Draws | 47% | 14% | 31% | 13% | 33% | 23% |
| Loses | 47% | 64% | 55% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
TondelaLLLDLDWLLDLWLLLWLLLDDDWDLDLDL
NacionalLDLWLLWWDLDLLWDLDLWLDLLLDLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 10 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 19 | 29 | 48 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tondela | Nacional | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 41% | 83% | 67% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 52% | 23% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 24% | 13% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 9 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 54.55% | 5 | 83.33% |
| Missed (total | %) | 5 | 45.45% | 1 | 16.67% |
| Total | 11 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tondela | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 39.2% | 60.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.91 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.45 @ Dafabet
Away2.60 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.98 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.92 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.74 @ Unibet
No2.10 @ 10Bet
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League standings
Loading standings…