Sat, Sep 6 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Arsenio Erico
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.27) 0.44 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.5% 31.5% 13.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
23.3%
0 - 0
19.7%
2 - 0
13.7%
Score & goals probability table
Deportivo Recoleta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional Asuncion 0 19.7% 8.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.3% 10.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.7% 6.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNacional AsuncionDeportivo Recoleta
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack27%33%
Defense67%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nacional Asuncion Deportivo Recoleta
HATHAT
Played46106410
Wins50%33%40%33%25%30%
Draws50%33%40%17%50%30%
Loses0%33%20%50%25%40%

Form: Nacional Asuncion: DWWWLDDWDL • Deportivo Recoleta: LWWLLLDDDW

League goals

Metric Nacional Asuncion Deportivo Recoleta
HATHAT
GF total651110414
GF avg1.50.81.11.71.01.4
GA total26811415
GA avg0.51.00.81.81.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNacional AsuncionDeportivo Recoleta
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%50%70%70%
1.520%20%50%40%
2.510%10%20%30%
3.50%0%0%10%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNacional AsuncionDeportivo Recoleta
HATHAT
Clean sheets235213
Failed to score022123

Penalties

MetricNacional AsuncionDeportivo Recoleta
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricNacional AsuncionDeportivo Recoleta
Wins32
Draws23
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-23-12-3
Biggest losses—3-02-41-0
Goals For3233
Goals Against1342

Model comparison

MetricNacional AsuncionDeportivo Recoleta
Form50%50%
Att44%56%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution70%30%
H2h20%80%
Goals33%67%
Total43.5%56.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Deportivo Recoleta and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.78 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.80 @ Bet365
Away5.00 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.17 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.73 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nacional Asuncion = 1.18 (league 1.27), Deportivo Recoleta = 0.44 (league 1.13)

Deportivo Recoleta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nacional Asuncion 0 19.7% 8.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.3% 10.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.7% 6.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.5% · Draw 31.5% · Away win 13.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1