Primera División Femenina — Spain
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 17:30 • Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano
Not Started

Real Madrid W

—

Edf Logrono W

Expected Goals
2.26 (league 1.49) 0.23 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
81.4% 13.2% 2.7%
best score tips
2 - 0
21.2%
1 - 0
18.8%
3 - 0
16.0%
Score & goals probability table
Edf Logrono W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Real Madrid W 0 8.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 18.8% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 21.2% 4.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 16.0% 3.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 9.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Real Madrid W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 343 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Real Madrid W +16.0, Edf Logrono W -5.0.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Real Madrid W Elo 1706.1 · +16.0
vs
Edf Logrono W Elo 1398.5 · -5.0
Elo gapReal Madrid W +343
Home / draw / away72% / 18% / 10%
Expected home share88%
Combined Elo3104.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3104.6
Elo home share 88%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Real Madrid W Edf Logrono W
Overall Elo1706.11398.5
Form Elo1716.91397.3
Home / Away Elo16021479.2
Attack Elo1795.11407.8
Defense Elo1614.71394.7
Last 5 Elo change+16.0-5.0

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Real Madrid W last-5 Elo change: +16.0; Edf Logrono W last-5 Elo change: -5.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricReal Madrid WEdf Logrono W
Played55
Form80%27%
Attack50%31%
Defense81%31%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-3
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Real Madrid W Edf Logrono W
HATHAT
Played121325131225
Wins83%69%76%8%8%8%
Draws0%15%8%15%50%32%
Loses17%15%16%77%42%60%
Real Madrid WDLWWDWWWWWLWWWWLWWWWWWWLW
Edf Logrono WDLLDLDDLDLLLLDLLLWLDLLLDW

League goals

Metric Real Madrid W Edf Logrono W
HATHAT
GF total29265511920
GF avg2.42.02.20.80.80.8
GA total51217311748
GA avg0.40.90.72.41.41.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineReal Madrid WEdf Logrono W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.584%36%44%88%
1.568%20%28%44%
2.544%8%4%32%
3.520%4%4%20%
4.54%0%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricReal Madrid WEdf Logrono W
HATHAT
Clean sheets9716033
Failed to score2247714

Penalties

MetricReal Madrid WEdf Logrono W
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total53

Streaks

MetricReal Madrid WEdf Logrono W
Wins71
Draws12
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-42-10-4
Biggest losses0-34-00-55-0
Goals For5424
Goals Against3455

Model comparison

MetricReal Madrid WEdf Logrono W
Form75%25%
Att62%38%
Def79%21%
Poisson Distribution91%9%
H2h88%13%
Goals80%20%
Total79.2%21.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Real Madrid W vs Edf Logrono W