Fri, Dec 5 2025 • 18:00 • Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.47 (league 1.35) 1.04 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.6% 34.3% 49.0%
best score tips
0 - 1
22.9%
0 - 0
22.1%
0 - 2
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
União de Leiria
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penafiel 0 22.1% 22.9% 11.9% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2%
1 10.4% 10.8% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 2.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenafielUnião de Leiria
Played55
Form33%53%
Attack36%64%
Defense57%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

60%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penafiel União de Leiria
HATHAT
Played58136612
Wins20%25%23%50%33%42%
Draws40%25%31%33%50%42%
Loses40%50%46%17%17%17%

Form: Penafiel: LDLLDWWLDWDLL • União de Leiria: WLDWWDDLWWDD

League goals

Metric Penafiel União de Leiria
HATHAT
GF total49139716
GF avg0.81.11.01.51.21.3
GA total510158513
GA avg1.01.31.21.30.81.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenafielUnião de Leiria
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%62%75%75%
1.531%46%42%25%
2.58%8%17%8%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenafielUnião de Leiria
HATHAT
Clean sheets235213
Failed to score235123

Penalties

MetricPenafielUnião de Leiria
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricPenafielUnião de Leiria
Wins22
Draws12
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-33-21-3
Biggest losses0-22-01-31-0
Goals For2333
Goals Against2331

Model comparison

MetricPenafielUnião de Leiria
Form38%62%
Att36%64%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution35%65%
H2h75%25%
Goals80%20%
Total53.5%46.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or União de Leiria

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.03 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.56 @ Pinnacle
Away2.16 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.08 @ SBO
Under 2.51.85 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.83 @ William Hill
No2.03 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Penafiel = 0.47 (league 1.35), União de Leiria = 1.04 (league 1.16)

União de Leiria
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penafiel 0 22.1% 22.9% 11.9% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2%
1 10.4% 10.8% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 2.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.6% · Draw 34.3% · Away win 49.0%

Vtot 5 , Vtod1