Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 14:00 • Estádio do Marítimo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.31) 1.34 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.6% 27.9% 46.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.1%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Maritimo 0 10.5% 14.1% 9.4% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4%
1 9.6% 12.9% 8.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3%
2 4.4% 5.9% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMaritimoPenafiel
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack64%64%
Defense45%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Maritimo Penafiel
HATHAT
Played65115611
Wins33%80%55%20%33%27%
Draws33%0%18%40%33%36%
Loses33%20%27%40%33%36%

Form: Maritimo: LWWWDWDLLWW • Penafiel: LDLLDWWLDWD

League goals

Metric Maritimo Penafiel
HATHAT
GF total76134812
GF avg1.21.21.20.81.31.1
GA total7185611
GA avg1.20.20.71.01.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMaritimoPenafiel
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%45%64%55%
1.536%18%36%36%
2.50%9%9%9%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMaritimoPenafiel
HATHAT
Clean sheets246235
Failed to score112224

Penalties

MetricMaritimoPenafiel
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricMaritimoPenafiel
Wins32
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-22-01-3
Biggest losses1-31-00-23-2
Goals For2223
Goals Against3123

Model comparison

MetricMaritimoPenafiel
Form47%53%
Att50%50%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h62%38%
Goals57%43%
Total49.5%50.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penafiel

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.58 @ Unibet
Draw4.24 @ Pinnacle
Away6.70 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.04 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ 188Bet
No1.89 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Maritimo = 0.92 (league 1.31), Penafiel = 1.34 (league 1.17)

Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Maritimo 0 10.5% 14.1% 9.4% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4%
1 9.6% 12.9% 8.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3%
2 4.4% 5.9% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.6% · Draw 27.9% · Away win 46.2%

Vtot 3 , Vtod1