Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 11:00 • Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.95 (league 1.32) 0.30 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
51.2% 37.3% 11.5%
best score tips
0 - 0
28.5%
1 - 0
27.2%
2 - 0
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
Pacos Ferreira
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penafiel 0 28.5% 8.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 27.2% 8.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.0% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenafielPacos Ferreira
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack43%43%
Defense29%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

39%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

54%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penafiel Pacos Ferreira
HATHAT
Played79168816
Wins43%22%31%25%13%19%
Draws29%22%25%50%38%44%
Loses29%56%44%25%50%38%

Form: Penafiel: LDLLDWWLDWDLLWLW • Pacos Ferreira: LDDLDDDWLWLDLLWD

League goals

Metric Penafiel Pacos Ferreira
HATHAT
GF total691512416
GF avg0.91.00.91.50.51.0
GA total51116121123
GA avg0.71.21.01.51.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenafielPacos Ferreira
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%56%56%69%
1.525%38%25%50%
2.56%6%13%13%
3.50%0%6%6%
4.50%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenafielPacos Ferreira
HATHAT
Clean sheets437235
Failed to score246257

Penalties

MetricPenafielPacos Ferreira
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricPenafielPacos Ferreira
Wins21
Draws13
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-34-10-1
Biggest losses0-22-01-53-0
Goals For2342
Goals Against2353

Model comparison

MetricPenafielPacos Ferreira
Form55%45%
Att50%50%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution76%24%
H2h38%62%
Goals50%50%
Total55.2%44.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Penafiel or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.15 @ Superbet
Draw3.25 @ Betano
Away3.82 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.14 @ SBO
Under 2.51.73 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.89 @ 188Bet
No1.92 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Penafiel = 0.95 (league 1.32), Pacos Ferreira = 0.30 (league 1.16)

Pacos Ferreira
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penafiel 0 28.5% 8.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 27.2% 8.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.0% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.2% · Draw 37.3% · Away win 11.5%

vtt 12 , vtd1