Sun, Jan 25 2026 • 15:30 • Estadio Carlos Osorio
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.32) 1.35 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.2% 25.2% 34.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
1 - 0
8.8%
2 - 1
8.6%
Score & goals probability table
Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Oliveirense 0 6.0% 8.2% 5.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
1 8.8% 11.9% 8.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.4% 8.6% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 3.1% 4.2% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOliveirensePenafiel
Played55
Form27%40%
Attack40%20%
Defense47%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Oliveirense Penafiel
HATHAT
Played99189918
Wins33%11%22%33%22%28%
Draws33%44%39%22%22%22%
Loses33%44%39%44%56%50%

Form: Oliveirense: DDWLDDDLWLDWLLWLLD • Penafiel: LDLLDWWLDWDLLWLWLL

League goals

Metric Oliveirense Penafiel
HATHAT
GF total144187916
GF avg1.60.41.00.81.00.9
GA total1482291120
GA avg1.60.91.21.01.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOliveirensePenafiel
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.561%61%61%61%
1.533%39%22%44%
2.56%17%6%6%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOliveirensePenafiel
HATHAT
Clean sheets347437
Failed to score167347

Penalties

MetricOliveirensePenafiel
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricOliveirensePenafiel
Wins12
Draws31
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-12-01-3
Biggest losses0-22-00-22-0
Goals For3223
Goals Against4323

Model comparison

MetricOliveirensePenafiel
Form40%60%
Att67%33%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h50%50%
Goals53%47%
Total50.5%49.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penafiel

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.38 @ William Hill
Draw3.40 @ Dafabet
Away3.07 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.08 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Oliveirense = 1.45 (league 1.32), Penafiel = 1.35 (league 1.18)

Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Oliveirense 0 6.0% 8.2% 5.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
1 8.8% 11.9% 8.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.4% 8.6% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 3.1% 4.2% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.2% · Draw 25.2% · Away win 34.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1