Fri, Feb 6 2026 • 20:15 • Estadio Municipal de Chaves
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.34) 0.86 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.8% 32.4% 30.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
16.0%
1 - 0
15.6%
0 - 1
13.7%
Score & goals probability table
Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chaves 0 16.0% 13.7% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.6% 13.4% 5.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 7.6% 6.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChavesPenafiel
Played55
Form7%27%
Attack33%25%
Defense33%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chaves Penafiel
HATHAT
Played101020101020
Wins20%50%35%30%20%25%
Draws50%10%30%30%20%25%
Loses30%40%35%40%60%50%

Form: Chaves: DDDWDWWLLLWDWWWLLLDL • Penafiel: LDLLDWWLDWDLLWLWLLLD

League goals

Metric Chaves Penafiel
HATHAT
GF total10132371017
GF avg1.01.31.20.71.00.9
GA total1091991322
GA avg1.00.91.00.91.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChavesPenafiel
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%65%60%60%
1.540%25%20%45%
2.55%5%5%5%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChavesPenafiel
HATHAT
Clean sheets347538
Failed to score336448

Penalties

MetricChavesPenafiel
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricChavesPenafiel
Wins32
Draws31
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-22-01-3
Biggest losses2-32-10-22-0
Goals For2323
Goals Against3223

Model comparison

MetricChavesPenafiel
Form20%80%
Att57%43%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h50%50%
Goals56%44%
Total47.0%53.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penafiel

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.75 @ Betano
Draw3.50 @ Marathonbet
Away5.67 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.16 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.13 @ 188Bet
No1.87 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chaves = 0.97 (league 1.34), Penafiel = 0.86 (league 1.16)

Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chaves 0 16.0% 13.7% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.6% 13.4% 5.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 7.6% 6.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.8% · Draw 32.4% · Away win 30.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1