Mon, Feb 16 2026 • 18:00 • Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.84 (league 1.34) 1.39 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.6% 27.4% 49.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.0%
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 0
10.7%
Score & goals probability table
Lusitânia Lourosa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penafiel 0 10.7% 15.0% 10.4% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5%
1 9.0% 12.5% 8.7% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
2 3.8% 5.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenafielLusitânia Lourosa
Played55
Form27%53%
Attack15%40%
Defense70%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.68 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penafiel Lusitânia Lourosa
HATHAT
Played101121111021
Wins30%27%29%18%60%38%
Draws30%18%24%55%10%33%
Loses40%55%48%27%30%29%

Form: Penafiel: LDLLDWWLDWDLLWLWLLLDW • Lusitânia Lourosa: WDDLDWLLDLDWWWLWDLDWW

League goals

Metric Penafiel Lusitânia Lourosa
HATHAT
GF total71118131831
GF avg0.71.00.91.21.81.5
GA total91322171633
GA avg0.91.21.01.51.61.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenafielLusitânia Lourosa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%57%81%86%
1.519%43%48%43%
2.55%5%10%19%
3.50%0%5%10%
4.50%0%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenafielLusitânia Lourosa
HATHAT
Clean sheets549123
Failed to score448314

Penalties

MetricPenafielLusitânia Lourosa
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricPenafielLusitânia Lourosa
Wins23
Draws12
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-33-21-5
Biggest losses0-22-00-44-0
Goals For2335
Goals Against2344

Model comparison

MetricPenafielLusitânia Lourosa
Form33%67%
Att27%73%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution39%61%
H2h50%50%
Goals0%0%
Total42.4%57.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.60 @ Superbet
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away3.02 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.32 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.74 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ Pinnacle
No1.96 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Penafiel = 0.84 (league 1.34), Lusitânia Lourosa = 1.39 (league 1.16)

Lusitânia Lourosa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penafiel 0 10.7% 15.0% 10.4% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5%
1 9.0% 12.5% 8.7% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
2 3.8% 5.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.6% · Draw 27.4% · Away win 49.6%

vtt 3 , vtd1