Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 18:00 • Estadio Marcolino de Castro
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.32) 0.62 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.7% 35.6% 23.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.5%
1 - 0
19.7%
0 - 1
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Feirense 0 21.5% 13.3% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.7% 12.2% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.0% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFeirensePenafiel
Played55
Form27%60%
Attack15%38%
Defense54%85%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

58%
FT probability

2.5+

41%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Feirense Penafiel
HATHAT
Played121325131225
Wins33%31%32%31%25%28%
Draws42%23%32%38%25%32%
Loses25%46%36%31%50%40%

Form: Feirense: DWLWDLLWLLDDDWLDWWWDLWLDL • Penafiel: LDLLDWWLDWDLLWLWLLLDWWDDD

League goals

Metric Feirense Penafiel
HATHAT
GF total131528111122
GF avg1.11.21.10.80.90.9
GA total102030111324
GA avg0.81.51.20.81.11.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFeirensePenafiel
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%72%64%56%
1.532%36%20%36%
2.512%12%4%4%
3.58%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFeirensePenafiel
HATHAT
Clean sheets5276511
Failed to score5510459

Penalties

MetricFeirensePenafiel
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricFeirensePenafiel
Wins32
Draws31
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-13-42-01-3
Biggest losses0-23-00-22-0
Goals For4423
Goals Against2323

Model comparison

MetricFeirensePenafiel
Form31%69%
Att29%71%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h80%20%
Goals71%29%
Total49.2%50.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Feirense or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.28 @ SBO
Draw3.25 @ Superbet
Away3.40 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.54 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.14 @ Pinnacle
No1.76 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Feirense = 0.92 (league 1.32), Penafiel = 0.62 (league 1.16)

Penafiel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Feirense 0 21.5% 13.3% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.7% 12.2% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.0% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.7% · Draw 35.6% · Away win 23.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1