Segunda Liga
— Portugal
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:00 •
Estádio do Mar
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.33)
2.37 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.5% | 19.4% | 52.2% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.6%
1 - 1
7.2%
1 - 3
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Portimonense | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Leixoes | 0 | 1.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 2.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Leixoes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 115 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Leixoes +33.8, Portimonense +32.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Leixoes
vs
Portimonense
Elo gapLeixoes +115
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo2936.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2936.7
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.4 | 1428.3 |
| Form Elo | 1531.7 | 1434.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1462.8 | 1457.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.1 | 1436.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1439.5 | 1445.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +33.8 | +32.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Leixoes last-5 Elo change: +33.8; Portimonense last-5 Elo change: +32.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 60% |
| Attack | 71% | 50% |
| Defense | 57% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Draws | 7% | 27% | 17% | 33% | 7% | 20% |
| Loses | 53% | 33% | 43% | 47% | 53% | 50% |
LeixoesWDWLLLLWLLWLLLWLDWDDWWLWLLWDWW
PortimonenseWLDWLWDLLDLLLLWWDWLDDLLLLLWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 18 | 38 | 15 | 19 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 31 | 19 | 50 | 20 | 24 | 44 |
| GA avg | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Leixoes | Portimonense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 73% | 70% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 50% | 33% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 23% | 10% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Leixoes | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.04 @ Dafabet
Draw3.67 @ Pinnacle
Away3.70 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Bet365
No1.96 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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