Segunda Liga
— Portugal
Sun, May 3 2026 • 10:00 •
Estádio Municipal de Portimão
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.33)
1.49 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.8% | 26.1% | 48.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.6%
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Chaves | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Portimonense | 0 | 8.5% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Chaves carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 48 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Portimonense +29.0, Chaves -12.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Portimonense
vs
Chaves
Elo gapChaves +48
Home / draw / away32% / 25% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo2924.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2924.2
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1420.5 | 1503.7 |
| Form Elo | 1421.6 | 1506.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1447.3 | 1508.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1425.5 | 1459.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1441.7 | 1576 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +29.0 | -12.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Portimonense last-5 Elo change: +29.0; Chaves last-5 Elo change: -12.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 58% | 58% |
| Defense | 42% | 17% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 20% | 38% | 29% | 38% | 40% | 39% |
| Draws | 33% | 6% | 19% | 31% | 7% | 19% |
| Loses | 47% | 56% | 52% | 31% | 53% | 42% |
PortimonenseWLDWLWDLLDLLLLWWDWLDDLLLLLWWLWL
ChavesDDDWDWWLLLWDWWWLLLDLLLWLWWLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 19 | 34 | 17 | 19 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 20 | 26 | 46 | 14 | 20 | 34 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Portimonense | Chaves | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 87% | 68% | 65% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 35% | 42% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 16% | 6% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 59% | 41% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 53.3% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.00 @ Betano
Draw3.21 @ Pinnacle
Away2.41 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.79 @ 1xBet
No1.95 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.05 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.75 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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