Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Yusuf Ziya Onis
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.63)
1.65 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.7% | 24.5% | 56.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.9%
1 - 1
11.5%
0 - 2
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Esenler Erokspor | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sarıyer | 0 | 8.4% | 13.9% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Esenler Erokspor carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 84 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sarıyer +7.0, Esenler Erokspor +8.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Sarıyer
vs
Esenler Erokspor
Elo gapEsenler Erokspor +84
Home / draw / away30% / 20% / 50%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3166.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3166.5
Elo home share
38%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1523.9 | 1642.6 |
| Form Elo | 1522.3 | 1651.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1540.2 | 1576.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1522.5 | 1734.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1558.2 | 1630.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.0 | +8.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Sarıyer last-5 Elo change: +7.0; Esenler Erokspor last-5 Elo change: +8.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 73% | 64% |
| Defense | 73% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Wins | 50% | 22% | 36% | 56% | 61% | 58% |
| Draws | 17% | 22% | 19% | 33% | 22% | 28% |
| Loses | 33% | 56% | 44% | 11% | 17% | 14% |
SarıyerLDLLLLLWLWDLWLWWLDWWWLLWLDWDLLWDWDWL
Esenler EroksporDLWWWWWLWDDWDWLWDDDWDWWWWWWWWDLLWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 15 | 42 | 38 | 42 | 80 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 16 | 28 | 44 | 16 | 17 | 33 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 64% | 86% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 42% | 58% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 14% | 42% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 25% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 11 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 11 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 8 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sarıyer | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 49.0% | 51.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home5.50 @ Betfair
Draw4.20 @ Dafabet
Away1.64 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.15 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ Betano
No2.05 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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