Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:30 •
Sportpark De Krom
Expected Goals
2.30 (league 1.73)
1.15 (league 1.53)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.2% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.7%
2 - 0
8.4%
1 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
| ACV | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Katwijk | 0 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Katwijk carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 127 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Katwijk +21.6, ACV +14.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Katwijk
vs
ACV
Elo gapKatwijk +127
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo2969
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2969
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1530.5 | 1438.5 |
| Form Elo | 1548.6 | 1442.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1480.2 | 1453.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1557.3 | 1507.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1460 | 1353.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +21.6 | +14.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Katwijk last-5 Elo change: +21.6; ACV last-5 Elo change: +14.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 50% | 40% |
| Defense | 50% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 50% | 31% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 17% |
| Draws | 7% | 38% | 23% | 27% | 33% | 30% |
| Loses | 43% | 31% | 37% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
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ACVLLLLLLLLDDLWDDLDDWLDLDWLLWDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 22 | 48 | 23 | 17 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 23 | 27 | 50 | 32 | 32 | 64 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Katwijk | ACV | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 83% | 67% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 57% | 40% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 7% | 7% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 8 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 4-1 | 1-5 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Katwijk | ACV |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 52% | 48% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 41% | 59% |
| Total | 51.3% | 48.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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