Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 14:00 • Brunton Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.50) 1.16 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.5% 25.7% 29.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
10.5%
2 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
Rochdale
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carlisle 0 7.1% 8.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.5% 12.2% 7.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.9% 9.1% 5.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.9% 4.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCarlisleRochdale
Played55
Form80%100%
Attack67%92%
Defense50%83%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Carlisle Rochdale
HATHAT
Played5611549
Wins60%67%64%100%75%89%
Draws40%0%18%0%0%0%
Loses0%33%18%0%25%11%

Form: Carlisle: WDDWWLWWWWL • Rochdale: WWWLWWWWW

League goals

Metric Carlisle Rochdale
HATHAT
GF total1472113720
GF avg2.81.21.92.61.82.2
GA total4812235
GA avg0.81.31.10.40.80.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCarlisleRochdale
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%45%100%44%
1.555%27%67%11%
2.527%18%33%0%
3.59%9%22%0%
4.59%9%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCarlisleRochdale
HATHAT
Clean sheets336325
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricCarlisleRochdale
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricCarlisleRochdale
Wins43
Draws20
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-24-01-3
Biggest losses—5-0—2-1
Goals For5243
Goals Against3512

Model comparison

MetricCarlisleRochdale
Form44%56%
Att42%58%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total44.0%56.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Rochdale

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.18 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.67 @ Pinnacle
Away3.20 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.83 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.02 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.70 @ 188Bet
No2.20 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Carlisle = 1.49 (league 1.50), Rochdale = 1.16 (league 1.24)

Rochdale
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carlisle 0 7.1% 8.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.5% 12.2% 7.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.9% 9.1% 5.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.9% 4.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.5% · Draw 25.7% · Away win 29.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1