Wed, Oct 1 2025 • 18:45 • Brunton Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.48) 0.56 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.9% 39.0% 24.1%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.2%
1 - 0
20.3%
0 - 1
14.8%
Score & goals probability table
Hartlepool
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carlisle 0 26.2% 14.8% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.3% 11.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 7.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCarlisleHartlepool
Played55
Form60%33%
Attack41%12%
Defense53%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.42 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

55%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Carlisle Hartlepool
HATHAT
Played66126612
Wins50%67%58%33%33%33%
Draws33%0%17%67%33%50%
Loses17%33%25%0%33%17%

Form: Carlisle: WDDWWLWWWWLL • Hartlepool: DWWWDDDLDLWD

League goals

Metric Carlisle Hartlepool
HATHAT
GF total147217411
GF avg2.31.21.81.20.70.9
GA total6814235
GA avg1.01.31.20.30.50.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCarlisleHartlepool
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%50%58%42%
1.550%33%25%0%
2.525%17%8%0%
3.58%8%0%0%
4.58%8%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCarlisleHartlepool
HATHAT
Clean sheets336437
Failed to score112235

Penalties

MetricCarlisleHartlepool
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricCarlisleHartlepool
Wins43
Draws23
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-23-00-2
Biggest losses0-25-01-0
Goals For5232
Goals Against3511

Model comparison

MetricCarlisleHartlepool
Form64%36%
Att78%22%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h62%38%
Goals59%41%
Total58.0%42.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Carlisle or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.75 @ William Hill
Draw4.02 @ Pinnacle
Away4.54 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.81 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.18 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.76 @ Pinnacle
No2.12 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Carlisle = 0.78 (league 1.48), Hartlepool = 0.56 (league 1.24)

Hartlepool
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carlisle 0 26.2% 14.8% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.3% 11.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 7.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.9% · Draw 39.0% · Away win 24.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1