Tue, Dec 30 2025 • 19:45 • Brunton Park
Not Started
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Expected Goals
3.53 (league 1.50) 1.26 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.8% 11.3% 9.1%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.7%
4 - 1
6.8%
2 - 1
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Morecambe
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carlisle 0 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 3.0% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.2% 6.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.1% 7.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
4 5.4% 6.8% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
5 3.8% 4.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCarlisleMorecambe
Played55
Form60%27%
Attack47%18%
Defense59%65%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Carlisle Morecambe
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins58%67%63%25%17%21%
Draws25%8%17%17%25%21%
Loses17%25%21%58%58%58%

Form: Carlisle: WDDWWLWWWWLLWWWDWWDWWLLW • Morecambe: WLLLLDWLLLDLLWLDDLWDLLWL

League goals

Metric Carlisle Morecambe
HATHAT
GF total271643151631
GF avg2.31.31.81.31.31.3
GA total141327262854
GA avg1.21.11.12.22.32.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCarlisleMorecambe
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%63%67%83%
1.554%29%38%67%
2.525%13%13%46%
3.58%4%13%21%
4.54%4%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCarlisleMorecambe
HATHAT
Clean sheets459224
Failed to score123448

Penalties

MetricCarlisleMorecambe
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricCarlisleMorecambe
Wins41
Draws22
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-32-00-4
Biggest losses1-35-02-55-0
Goals For5344
Goals Against3555

Model comparison

MetricCarlisleMorecambe
Form69%31%
Att73%27%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution73%27%
H2h71%29%
Goals75%25%
Total67.8%32.2%

Advice: Winner : Carlisle

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.39 @ Betano
Draw5.10 @ Unibet
Away7.50 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.45 @ Betano
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.20 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Carlisle = 3.53 (league 1.50), Morecambe = 1.26 (league 1.24)

Morecambe
0 1 2 3 4 5
Carlisle 0 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 3.0% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.2% 6.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.1% 7.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
4 5.4% 6.8% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
5 3.8% 4.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.8% · Draw 11.3% · Away win 9.1%

Vtot 3 , Vtod2