Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Moss Lane
Expected Goals
1.82 (league 1.54)
1.20 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | 23.0% | 25.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.7%
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 0
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Gateshead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Altrincham | 0 | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Altrincham carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 48 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Altrincham +13.0, Gateshead +35.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Altrincham
vs
Gateshead
Elo gapAltrincham +48
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2964.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2964.1
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1488.6 | 1475.5 |
| Form Elo | 1499.6 | 1507.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1488.8 | 1526 |
| Attack Elo | 1477.9 | 1434.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1490.5 | 1395.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.0 | +35.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Altrincham last-5 Elo change: +13.0; Gateshead last-5 Elo change: +35.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 67% |
| Attack | 31% | 31% |
| Defense | 69% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 55% | 17% | 36% | 26% | 36% | 31% |
| Draws | 5% | 22% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 18% |
| Loses | 41% | 61% | 51% | 57% | 45% | 51% |
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GatesheadLWLWWDLLDLLWWLDDLLLLLLLLLLLLLWWDLWWDDWLWWDWWL
League goals
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 22 | 52 | 25 | 28 | 53 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 27 | 37 | 64 | 44 | 43 | 87 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Altrincham | Gateshead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 78% | 62% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 47% | 36% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 13% | 11% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 2% | 7% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
Penalties
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 13 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Altrincham | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 54.8% | 45.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.35 @ Unibet
Draw3.70 @ Bet365
Away2.87 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.57 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.47 @ Unibet
No2.75 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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