Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Roots Hall
Expected Goals
2.34 (league 1.54)
0.68 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4% | 16.4% | 9.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.4%
1 - 0
11.5%
3 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Wealdstone | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Southend | 0 | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Southend carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 160 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Southend +13.8, Wealdstone -3.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Southend
vs
Wealdstone
Elo gapSouthend +160
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo3175.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3175.6
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1650.3 | 1525.3 |
| Form Elo | 1658.5 | 1519.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1567.6 | 1452.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1714.2 | 1569.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1629.6 | 1457.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.8 | -3.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Southend last-5 Elo change: +13.8; Wealdstone last-5 Elo change: -3.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 88% | 44% |
| Defense | 63% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 21 | 44 |
| Wins | 55% | 43% | 49% | 48% | 19% | 34% |
| Draws | 32% | 22% | 27% | 26% | 24% | 25% |
| Loses | 14% | 35% | 24% | 26% | 57% | 41% |
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WealdstoneWWWLLLWDLDDWDLWWWDDDLDLLLWDLLLWLWWWLLLWLWLDD
League goals
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 42 | 81 | 42 | 24 | 66 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 18 | 28 | 46 | 31 | 41 | 72 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Southend | Wealdstone | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 62% | 73% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 49% | 31% | 41% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 7% | 18% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 2% | 9% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 5% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 2-6 | 7-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-4 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Southend | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 62.8% | 37.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.50 @ Betano
Draw4.60 @ Dafabet
Away6.25 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.55 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.20 @ William Hill
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League standings
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