Premier League
— Russia
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Samara Arena
Expected Goals
1.28 (league 1.52)
2.17 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.8% | 20.4% | 55.3% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.6%
1 - 1
8.8%
0 - 2
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Lokomotiv | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Krylia Sovetov | 0 | 3.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Lokomotiv carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 157 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Krylia Sovetov -7.8, Lokomotiv +2.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Krylia Sovetov
vs
Lokomotiv
Elo gapLokomotiv +157
Home / draw / away24% / 18% / 58%
Expected home share29%
Combined Elo3106.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3106.1
Elo home share
29%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1456.9 | 1649.2 |
| Form Elo | 1444.2 | 1647.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481 | 1552 |
| Attack Elo | 1490.6 | 1715 |
| Defense Elo | 1364.3 | 1574.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.8 | +2.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Krylia Sovetov last-5 Elo change: -7.8; Lokomotiv last-5 Elo change: +2.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 53% |
| Attack | 56% | 89% |
| Defense | 22% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 14 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 33% | 7% | 19% | 54% | 46% | 50% |
| Draws | 50% | 14% | 31% | 46% | 31% | 38% |
| Loses | 17% | 79% | 50% | 0% | 23% | 12% |
Krylia SovetovDWWDLLDWLLLDLLDWLLLWLDLDDL
LokomotivWWWWDDDDDWWWDLWDWWWDLWLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 11 | 27 | 28 | 23 | 51 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 15 | 32 | 47 | 13 | 20 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 81% | 88% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 54% | 50% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 23% | 35% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 12% | 15% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 5 | 83.33% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 16.67% |
| Total | 1 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-6 | 5-0 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Krylia Sovetov | Lokomotiv |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 43.8% | 56.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.03 @ 1xBet
Draw3.87 @ 1xBet
Away1.97 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.86 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.09 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Marathonbet
No2.11 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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